Dear Readers,
I'm glad I was wrong. I've said earlier in this blog that Ohio would not play nearly a large role in 2008 as it has in the past. About that... Ohio was the turning point on election night. No McCain electoral victory map did not include Ohio. As soon as the state was called, a scream went up at Occidental's election watching party. Anyone who knew anything about politics knew that Ohio had just decided the election for Obama. Of course Virginia was the one to actually place the crown on Obama's head, but Ohio once again stepped up to the plate of history. I'll remember last night for a long time.
The night was bittersweet. Prop. 8 succeeded in California. It was a campaign I had worked long and hard on, and it broke my heart to see it pass. So today, I have been torn between my exultation over Obama's landslide and the crushing defeat of civil rights in California. Hope won the day in the US, but hatred and bigotry won in California.
Part of what's nuts is that the election isn't over yet! Norm Coleman (R) and Al Franken (D) are heading for a nail-biting recount in Minnesota. And unless the few ballots left to be counted in Georgia change anything, Saxby Chambliss (R-i) will be heading into a December runoff against challenger Jim Maritn (D). Unlike Minnesota, this is a whole new election, so the campaigning and flow of resources will be unprecedented. I would not be surprised to see Obama stump heavily for Martin. Just a few hours, The Oregonian called the Oregon Senate seat for Jeff Merkley (D), bringing the Democrats to 57 seats in the Senate. In Alaska the outcome is still too close to call, but the consensus seems to be that a narrow win for 8-term incumbent and convicted felon Ted Stevens. Crazy.
It's been a fun ride, and it's not over yet! This blog will be updated less frequently with the election behind us, but please check in every once in a while! I doubt I can stay quiet for long!
Best,
Isaac
Showing posts with label obama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label obama. Show all posts
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Saturday, November 1, 2008
State of the Race: Ohio Polling
It's been too long since I've dedicated a post to this blog's main topic: the Ohio vote. Ohio was in 2000 and 2004 a major decider in the national election. It was close both times and would have changed the outcome had it gone to the Democrats. Because of the massive national poll movement towards Obama though and his unconventional electoral strategy, Ohio is much less of a hinge this time around: Obama can win without it. Indeed, venerable poll analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com has Obama winning 78% of his election scenarios with the pre-assumtion of Ohio being in McCain's column. Sorry buckeyes: you're probably not the deciders this time.
If Ohio was so important in 2000 and especially 2004, why is it less so this time? The answer lies in Obama's groundbreaking fundraising and "50-state strategy". Obama has been investing heavily in alternate electoral strategies. And with his coffers he can afford to do so. Even if McCain gets back the 2004 Bush states with small Obama leads currently (North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, North Dakota), McCain would still need to win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Nevada to win. That's a tall order. So take solace buckeyes: if you give an Obama an early win on election night, you could still "select" our next president!
This graph from Pollster shows the trendlines for the Ohio polls. Interestingly the projected 7-point or so gap between Obama and McCain is right on par with the national polling numbers. I guess that speaks to Ohio's reputation as a bellwether. Considering how crappy McCain's endgame strategy on the ground appears to be, the Republicans will need a voter disenfranchisement system even better than 2004's. And now Ohio's Secretary of State is a Democrat. That'll make things harder. Without even that being topped, McCain needs a big external surprise in the next 3 days. Barring that, we'll be calling him President Obama.
But most of all? Remember to VOTE!!!
If Ohio was so important in 2000 and especially 2004, why is it less so this time? The answer lies in Obama's groundbreaking fundraising and "50-state strategy". Obama has been investing heavily in alternate electoral strategies. And with his coffers he can afford to do so. Even if McCain gets back the 2004 Bush states with small Obama leads currently (North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, North Dakota), McCain would still need to win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Nevada to win. That's a tall order. So take solace buckeyes: if you give an Obama an early win on election night, you could still "select" our next president!
This graph from Pollster shows the trendlines for the Ohio polls. Interestingly the projected 7-point or so gap between Obama and McCain is right on par with the national polling numbers. I guess that speaks to Ohio's reputation as a bellwether. Considering how crappy McCain's endgame strategy on the ground appears to be, the Republicans will need a voter disenfranchisement system even better than 2004's. And now Ohio's Secretary of State is a Democrat. That'll make things harder. Without even that being topped, McCain needs a big external surprise in the next 3 days. Barring that, we'll be calling him President Obama.
But most of all? Remember to VOTE!!!
Friday, October 17, 2008
The Freak Show is Nervous...
Our lovely buddies in the "news" media, aka the Freak Show are nervous about election night. And not in a way that anyone else in America. The Freak Show is nervous about their dramatic election night extravaganza will be cut short by an Obama landslide! With the polls shifting dramatically in Obama's favor and McCain's prospects looking worse and worse, there's a good chance that the election will be over before voting results from the West start coming in.
As is usual, the colls will close on the east coast several hours before their west coast counterparts. In 2004, the media had a feeding frenzy with 2 extremely close races, each coming down to one Swing State. The electoral map this time though, barring a national crisis, is looking a little different:
If Obama starts the night with North Carolina, Virginia and Pennsylvania, McCain is screwed. McCain has no reasnoable electoral strategy w/o Virginia, let alone North Carolina. McCain is playing major league defense right now. His electoral strategy appears to be a replication of Bush's 2004 map. He's been campaigning and spending heavily in Virgiia, North Carolina, Indiana and West Virginia, states he can't afford to worry about on the electoral map. In order to win McCain needs to be able to focus all his energy on traditional Swing States like Florida, Nevada, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and especially Ohio. To reitirate, McCain is done without winning Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio:
<p><strong>><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/">Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>
In this example, McCain loses Virginia, which has less electoral votes than Ohio and Virginia which I here hypothetically give to McCain. What can he move from this map into the GOP column? Maybe the 2004 Bush states? He's thrown Iowa under the Straight Talk Express with his continued slamming of ethanol subsidies (which I kind of agree with him on), putting it all but out of reach. New Mexico similarly doesn't look like much of a contest this year. He would need to flip both or Pennsylvania to offset his Virginia loss. And if he loses Florida or Ohio right off the bat? Forget it.
So why does this have the media running scared? Simple. Its a huge conundrum for them. If the race ends early, do they call it for Obama? There are two significant downsides to doing so. 1. It hurts ratings. Doing so would force them to talk about something else substantive like the congressional elections. Wouldn't that be awful. 2. Their declaration could affect voter turnout. If the media declares it in the bag for Obama while its still daytime in the West, voter turnout could go down. Why vote if the election is already "over". States like Missouri, Nevada and Colorado could potentially be won by McCain because Obama voters are already celebrating. This would be a real shame, and deter from a truly representative electoral result.
So what are the media bigwigs going to do? Senior Vice President of CBS news Paul Friedman said: "We could say something like, ‘Given the number of electoral votes Obama already has, and given what we know about the voting so far in various states where the polls have not closed, it is going to be very hard for John McCain to win.’ I would sincerely hope that kind of language would not discourage people out West from voting.” Sam Feist, CNN's Political Director said "A night of early surprises would be a gift for John King's "Magic Wall" of computerized maps. Feist said: "If we know early in the evening that Barack Obama wins a critical state such as Virginia or Florida, we'll have a conversation about what John McCain would have to pull out of his hat now," such as Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Colorado or Nevada". This is why we love CNN. John Kind just goes crazy with that newfangled thing. I miss the whiteboard.
On MSNBC, the diagnosis is not good for McCain. Joe Scarborough said on “Morning Joe”: “When it becomes obvious that one candidate’s going to lose, usually members of that party start jumping, like rats from a ship. You’re starting to hear from Republicans that are really afraid McCain’s going to lose, Democrats may [reach] 60 in the Senate, and this is going to be a historic rout.” That's not exactly a glowing prediction for McCain's Nov. 3 chances. I can't wait to see the media freak-out then.
(Thanks to Mark Halperin at The Page for directing me to the Politico article)
As is usual, the colls will close on the east coast several hours before their west coast counterparts. In 2004, the media had a feeding frenzy with 2 extremely close races, each coming down to one Swing State. The electoral map this time though, barring a national crisis, is looking a little different:
If Obama starts the night with North Carolina, Virginia and Pennsylvania, McCain is screwed. McCain has no reasnoable electoral strategy w/o Virginia, let alone North Carolina. McCain is playing major league defense right now. His electoral strategy appears to be a replication of Bush's 2004 map. He's been campaigning and spending heavily in Virgiia, North Carolina, Indiana and West Virginia, states he can't afford to worry about on the electoral map. In order to win McCain needs to be able to focus all his energy on traditional Swing States like Florida, Nevada, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and especially Ohio. To reitirate, McCain is done without winning Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio:
In this example, McCain loses Virginia, which has less electoral votes than Ohio and Virginia which I here hypothetically give to McCain. What can he move from this map into the GOP column? Maybe the 2004 Bush states? He's thrown Iowa under the Straight Talk Express with his continued slamming of ethanol subsidies (which I kind of agree with him on), putting it all but out of reach. New Mexico similarly doesn't look like much of a contest this year. He would need to flip both or Pennsylvania to offset his Virginia loss. And if he loses Florida or Ohio right off the bat? Forget it.
So why does this have the media running scared? Simple. Its a huge conundrum for them. If the race ends early, do they call it for Obama? There are two significant downsides to doing so. 1. It hurts ratings. Doing so would force them to talk about something else substantive like the congressional elections. Wouldn't that be awful. 2. Their declaration could affect voter turnout. If the media declares it in the bag for Obama while its still daytime in the West, voter turnout could go down. Why vote if the election is already "over". States like Missouri, Nevada and Colorado could potentially be won by McCain because Obama voters are already celebrating. This would be a real shame, and deter from a truly representative electoral result.
So what are the media bigwigs going to do? Senior Vice President of CBS news Paul Friedman said: "We could say something like, ‘Given the number of electoral votes Obama already has, and given what we know about the voting so far in various states where the polls have not closed, it is going to be very hard for John McCain to win.’ I would sincerely hope that kind of language would not discourage people out West from voting.” Sam Feist, CNN's Political Director said "A night of early surprises would be a gift for John King's "Magic Wall" of computerized maps. Feist said: "If we know early in the evening that Barack Obama wins a critical state such as Virginia or Florida, we'll have a conversation about what John McCain would have to pull out of his hat now," such as Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Colorado or Nevada". This is why we love CNN. John Kind just goes crazy with that newfangled thing. I miss the whiteboard.
On MSNBC, the diagnosis is not good for McCain. Joe Scarborough said on “Morning Joe”: “When it becomes obvious that one candidate’s going to lose, usually members of that party start jumping, like rats from a ship. You’re starting to hear from Republicans that are really afraid McCain’s going to lose, Democrats may [reach] 60 in the Senate, and this is going to be a historic rout.” That's not exactly a glowing prediction for McCain's Nov. 3 chances. I can't wait to see the media freak-out then.
(Thanks to Mark Halperin at The Page for directing me to the Politico article)
What the debates could have been
Why couldn't the debates have been like this:
Seriously! EVERYONE would watch! Alright Democrats, time to nominate Batman in 2016! The Republicans have the Penguin down.
Seriously! EVERYONE would watch! Alright Democrats, time to nominate Batman in 2016! The Republicans have the Penguin down.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
My Election Predictions as of Now
In the political blogosphere, one of the most popular games is "color in the electoral map". Maybe the coloring lets us go back to our childhoods, I don't know. Never mind that we haven't had a single debate yet, or that the polls' likely voter statistics are fantasy more than anything else: everyone loves to guess using information that will be all but irrelevant come election day!
Before the Republican convention (which more importantly was the latter), we were only getting 3-7 national/state polls for day. And then began the deluge. As of 2:30 Pacific Time, we already have 16 polls reported for today. Last Thursday there were 29 polls reported. This is getting kind of silly. Though the polls do give the pundits and political nerds something to talk about, their only practical use is to indicate to the campaigns where they should allocate their resources. A good example: Arkansas, which could have been competitive considering its blue history during the Clinton years is quite a safe state for McCain. Obama isn't allocating serious resources there. On the other hand, the polls have shown Virginia, Montana, Indiana and North Carolina to be possible Obama pickups, even though they're not standard democratic targets.
Regardless of the polls' relative unimportance outside of talking points and state-by-state resource allocation, I'm going to join the crowd and put up a couple pretty maps. Unlike most blogs though, my maps will not all be solely based on poll data. I'll use my personal crystal ball to present a couple of the scenarios:
&amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;strong&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'&amp;amp;gt;Electoral College Prediction Map&amp;amp;lt;/a&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;/strong&amp;amp;gt; - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.&amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;gt;
This is the map if you take the state-by-state poll averages and assume that whichever candidate leads them will win the state come November. Studies have shown that most voters make up their minds by Labor Day, so this is entirely plausible. Considering recent poll movement though, this projection is shaky at best.
*****
<p><strong>><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/">Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>
This is what a complete Obama blowout would probably look like. Obama's ground game is certainly a lot stronger than McCain's, whcih is good news for the democrats in terms of GoTV. Additionally, the polls haven't really been talking to cell phone-only voters, a decidedly younger, and hence more Obama-friendly crowd. If high turnout and increasing anti-republican sentiment come together, this outcome is feasible.
*****
&amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;strong&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'&amp;amp;gt;Electoral College Prediction Map&amp;amp;lt;/a&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;/strong&amp;amp;gt; - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.&amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;gt;
In fairness, this is probably what a McCain blowout looks like. Maybe if Palin saves Desmond Tutu from a rampaging Moose? Seriously though, this is possible if the numbers shift about 5 points across the board to McCain.
*****
&amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;strong&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'&amp;amp;gt;Electoral College Prediction Map&amp;amp;lt;/a&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;/strong&amp;amp;gt; - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.&amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;gt;
This is currently my own crystal ball prediction. Nevada and Virginia were the only democratic wins from Nate Silver's (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) awesome predictions that didn't make it over here. I think Obama's union appeal will win the day in Ohio, but my gut tells me that many Virginia Republicans will return to the fold following the debates. Maybe a little poll booth racism/Bradley effect in there too. Even though Obama can win through Iowa/New Mexico/ Colorado + every Kerry state, I really do think Ohio will be a major decider once again. My money says that Ohio will once again side with history and select our next President.
*****
Regardless, this is all rather pointless, considering that the debates and media super-saturation really haven't happened yet. As a politics dork though, I can hardly resist.
Before the Republican convention (which more importantly was the latter), we were only getting 3-7 national/state polls for day. And then began the deluge. As of 2:30 Pacific Time, we already have 16 polls reported for today. Last Thursday there were 29 polls reported. This is getting kind of silly. Though the polls do give the pundits and political nerds something to talk about, their only practical use is to indicate to the campaigns where they should allocate their resources. A good example: Arkansas, which could have been competitive considering its blue history during the Clinton years is quite a safe state for McCain. Obama isn't allocating serious resources there. On the other hand, the polls have shown Virginia, Montana, Indiana and North Carolina to be possible Obama pickups, even though they're not standard democratic targets.
Regardless of the polls' relative unimportance outside of talking points and state-by-state resource allocation, I'm going to join the crowd and put up a couple pretty maps. Unlike most blogs though, my maps will not all be solely based on poll data. I'll use my personal crystal ball to present a couple of the scenarios:
This is the map if you take the state-by-state poll averages and assume that whichever candidate leads them will win the state come November. Studies have shown that most voters make up their minds by Labor Day, so this is entirely plausible. Considering recent poll movement though, this projection is shaky at best.
*****
This is what a complete Obama blowout would probably look like. Obama's ground game is certainly a lot stronger than McCain's, whcih is good news for the democrats in terms of GoTV. Additionally, the polls haven't really been talking to cell phone-only voters, a decidedly younger, and hence more Obama-friendly crowd. If high turnout and increasing anti-republican sentiment come together, this outcome is feasible.
*****
In fairness, this is probably what a McCain blowout looks like. Maybe if Palin saves Desmond Tutu from a rampaging Moose? Seriously though, this is possible if the numbers shift about 5 points across the board to McCain.
*****
This is currently my own crystal ball prediction. Nevada and Virginia were the only democratic wins from Nate Silver's (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) awesome predictions that didn't make it over here. I think Obama's union appeal will win the day in Ohio, but my gut tells me that many Virginia Republicans will return to the fold following the debates. Maybe a little poll booth racism/Bradley effect in there too. Even though Obama can win through Iowa/New Mexico/ Colorado + every Kerry state, I really do think Ohio will be a major decider once again. My money says that Ohio will once again side with history and select our next President.
*****
Regardless, this is all rather pointless, considering that the debates and media super-saturation really haven't happened yet. As a politics dork though, I can hardly resist.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
The Candidates on Taxes
To cut through the McCain camps deceptive attacks on Obama wanting to raise taxes on the middle class, here's a fabulous no-nonsense graphic from the Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/06/09/ST2008060900950.html):
What exactly are those extra 19$ going to do for America's poor Senator? And will giving an average of 270,000$ back to the uber-rich save our country? We've had enough trickle-down reaganomics these last 8 years to smell the stench of cronyism. McCain doesn't have a solution for the middle class: he has a payout for those like him, with multiple houses, multi-million dollar incomes and little motivation to spend. Obama's tax plan will put real money into the hands of those most likely to spend it: America's lower and middle class, who need this relief to get by.
What exactly are those extra 19$ going to do for America's poor Senator? And will giving an average of 270,000$ back to the uber-rich save our country? We've had enough trickle-down reaganomics these last 8 years to smell the stench of cronyism. McCain doesn't have a solution for the middle class: he has a payout for those like him, with multiple houses, multi-million dollar incomes and little motivation to spend. Obama's tax plan will put real money into the hands of those most likely to spend it: America's lower and middle class, who need this relief to get by.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Great Obama Interview on Countdown
This is a terrific interview from Monday. Olbermann and Obama both knocked it out of the park. Check it out:
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